Asymptotic Expansions of Posterior Distributions in Nonregular Cases

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the posterior distributions for a one-parameter family of discontinuous densities. It is shown that a suitably centered and normalized posterior converges almost surely to an exponential limit in the total variation norm. Further, asymptotic expansions for the density, distribution function, moments and quantiles of the posterior are also obtained. It is to be noted that, in view of the results of Ghosh et al. (1994, Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics V, 183-199, Springer, New York) and Ghosal et al. (1995, Ann. Statist., 23, 2145-2152), the nonregular cases considered here are essentially the only ones for which the posterior distributions converge. The results obtained here are also supported by a simulation experiment.     

Melnikov向量与退化情形下的横截异宿轨道

利用指数二分性和泛函分析方法,我们研究了当未扰动系统不具有异宿流形的退化异宿分支.我们利用Melnikov型向量给出了系统在退化情形下的横截异宿轨道存在的充分条件.     

Possible triggering of solar activity to big earthquakes (Ms ≥ 8) in faults with near west-east strike in China

A big earthquake (Ms = 8.1) occurred at western Kunlun Mts gap on November 14, 2001. It is the biggest earthquake in China in the past 50 years and the only one with a magnitude bigger than 8 in China after Dangxiong Earthquake (M = 8) in Tibet in 1951. The big earthquake has drawn wide attention of scientists in seismological, geophysical, geological and astro-geodynamic circles. Scientists are interested in the occurrence regularity of the very big earthquakes and try to find out the fac…     

A preliminary study of post-seismic effects of radon following the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

The observation data for radon from national geochemical observation points have been collected and analyzed following the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12th May, 2008 and a post-seismic effect of radon was observed. It has provided the most abundant record since the radon observation network had been set up in china. In this paper, the behaviour of the post-seismic effects of radon gas and water radon is reported. The results were obtained that observation points recording post-seismic effects of radon release were distributed mainly along the extended line of Longmenshan faults, and located on the boundary faults of regional tectonic blocks (Category II) and inside some tectonic blocks (Category II). The pattern of variation in radon emission observed was largely in the form of rising steps. A comparison was made with the variation of water level and flow observed simultaneously with radon measurement, to investigate a dynamic link with post-seismic radon with underground water conditions. This study confirmed a response of radon concentration to the seismic wave, and also raised other scientific issues, such as the dynamic association between geochemical composition of underground water and medium parameter variation of aquifers under dynamic loading, which may support the study of the mechanism of earthquake precursors of radon.     

Anomalous change of groundwater radon concentration monitored at Nakaizu well in 2011

An anomalous increase in radon concentration was measured at the Nakaizu observatory on the Izu Peninsula prior to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake using a custom-made radon counter. Since the increase was more than three times the standard deviation of radon concentration variations over 35 years of recorded data, it is considered likely that it is a precursor to the earthquake. Following the earthquake, the radon concentration decreased exponentially to the background level. The anomalous increase is explained using a modified volatilization model containing three important aquifer parameters: the groundwater saturation ratio, the fracture surface area per unit volume, and the porosity. The modified model can also explain the radon concentration behavior prior to the 1978 Izu-Oshima-Kinkai earthquake.     

Selectivity of seismic electric signal (SES) of the 2000 Izu earthquake swarm: a 3D FEM numerical simulation model

Although seismic electric signal (SES) has been used for short-term prediction of earthquakes, selectivity of SES still remains as one of the mysterious features. As a case study, we made a numerical simulation based on a 3D finite element method (FEM) on the selectivity of SES observed in the case of the 2000 Izu earthquake swarm. Our numerical results indicated that the existence of conductive channel under Niijima island could explain the reported SES selectivity.     

高中化学优质教学案例中教材分析的现状研究及分析模型建构*

以核心期刊《化学教育》2018-2021年高中化学教学设计及实施类文献为研究对象,在较完备的教材分析视角指引下,采用内容分析法研究优质教学案例中教材分析的现状及特点,在此基础上构建教材分析模型,探索优质教学案例的设计路径。     

Analytical analysis of anisotropic thermophoresis of a charged spheroidal colloid in aqueous media for extremely thin EDL cases

Thermophoresis of charged spheroids has been widely applied in biology and medical science. In this work, we report an analysis of the anisotropic thermophoresis of diluted spheroidal colloids in aqueous media for extremely thin EDL cases. Under the boundary layer approximation, we formulate the thermophoretic velocity, the thermophoretic force, and the thermodiffusion coefficient of a randomly dispersed spheroid. The parametric studies show that under the aforementioned conditions, the thermophoresis is anisotropic and its thermodiffusion coefficient should be considered as a vector, D _T. The thermodiffusion coefficient values and directions of D _T are strongly related to the aspect ratio and the angle θ between the externally applied temperature gradient and the particle's axis of revolution: The increasing aspect ratio enlarges the thermodiffusion coefficient value D_T of prolate (oblate) spheroids to a constant value when θ < 60° (θ > 45°), and it reduces D_T of prolate (oblate) spheroids to a constant value when θ > 60° (θ < 45°). The thermodiffusion coefficient direction of both prolate and oblate spheroids deviates slightly from −∇T_∞ for a small aspect ratio, and such deviation becomes serious for a large aspect ratio.     

预警的概念及相关物理问题

预警是现代社会减轻自然灾害的工作中最重要的物理概念之一,也是在预测/预报的物理问题没有得到解决的情况下最具实际意义的技术之一.文章介绍了与预警有关的概念和物理问题,包括预报和预警的概念,现地预警和异地预警,讨论了不同领域的预警技术中共同的物理问题,包括“有限传播”原理、“连锁效应”原理、“相似放大”原理,以及实际工作对预警系统的主要技术要求.     

遥感技术在孝丰-三门湾活动断裂调查中的应用——以杭州地区为例

遥感技术可以在宏观上对活动断裂及其构造特征进行全面的解译和识别．在区域遥感影像图制作和地质解译的基础上，采用增强和融合等图像处理方法，提高了遥感影像清晰度和解译精度，同时结合野外调查、测量以及断裂活动年代样品的采集和测定，对孝丰-三门湾断裂进行了详细的研究，查明了它的空间展布，并鉴定了活动时代和运动性质．研究结果表明，孝丰-三门湾断裂在杭州地区以挤压逆冲运动为主，兼有左旋走滑运动，并在各个地段和各个时期表现形式截然不同，影响了杭州南部地区地层沉积和构造演化．该断裂对杭州地区历史地震和现代地震具备一定的控制作用，可能在晚更新世以来有过活动．